On the Energy Flux podcast, we set out three possible scenarios for the future reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. These are as follows:
- Strait partially reopens (10% capacity) two weeks prior to 4th July
- Strait fully reopens (100%) two weeks prior to the US midterms in November 2026
2. 'Hormuz dominates the US primaries'
- Strait partially reopens (20% capacity) in January 2028
- Strait fully reopens (100%) in January 2029
3. 'Iran waits for post-Trump world'
- Partial reopening (60% capacity) in November 2028
- Full reopening (100%) on inauguration day, January 2029